According to the Cyclone Warning Division of the India Meteorology Department, Delhi: (at 13.45 Hrs IST)
The severe cyclonic storm NIVAR over southwest Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards with a speed of 11 kmph during past six hours and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of 25th November, 2020 over southwest Bay of Bengal about 180 km east-southeast of Cuddalore, about 190 km east southeast of Puducherry and 250 km south southeast of Chennai. It is very likely to intensify further into a very severe cyclonic storm during next 06 hours.
Director General, IMD, Dr. M. Mohapatra along with Director General, NDRF, S. N. Pradhan at a joint press conference in New Delhi on November 24, 2020 had explained that the Cycloine Nivar is very likely to move northwestwards and cross Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts between Karaikal and Mamallapuram around Puducherry during mid-night of 25th and early hours of 26th November 2020 as a very severe cyclonic storm with a wind speed of 120-130 kmph gusting to 145 kmph.
DG, NDRF, S N. Pradhan told media that a close watch is being kept over the system, and that National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) HQ and Commandants of battalions located at Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh are in coordination with the respective state authorities. He said, in view of the IMD forecast and requirements projected by the state authorities, 22 teams (12 teams in Tamil Nadu, 03 teams in Puducherry and 07 teams in Andhra Pradesh) have been pre-positioned at likely affected areas. Teams have been kept reserve at Guntur (Andhra Pradesh), Thrissur (Kerala) and Mundli (Odisha) to meet additional requirements, he added.
All teams have reliable wireless and satellite communications, tree cutters/ pole cutters for post landfall restoration, if need arises. In view of the current COVID-19 scenario, NDRF teams are equipped with appropriate PPEs, said Pradhan.
He said that NDRF is working in close coordination with district and local administrations. Awareness programmes are being conducted for all citizens in the form of information about cyclones, do’s and don’ts and information about COVID-19 in affected areas and prevention measures. All deployed teams are assisting the local administration in evacuation of people from areas that are likely to be affected by the cyclone. NDRF is spreading a sense of security amongst the communities that teams are available at their service and will remain present in the area until the situation returns to normal, so that the public does not panic.
Forecast track and intensity are given below:
|Date/Time(IST)||Position (Lat. 0N/ long. 0E)||Maximum sustained surface wind speed (Kmph)||Category of cyclonic disturbance|
|25.11.20/1130||11.0/81.3||110-120 gusting to 135||Severe Cyclonic Storm|
|25.11.20/1730||11.6/80.6||120-130 gusting to 145||Very Severe Cyclonic Storm|
|25.11.20/2330||12.1/80.0||120-130 gusting to 145||Very Severe Cyclonic Storm|
|26.11.20/0530||12.6/79.4||90-100 gusting to 110||Severe Cyclonic Storm|
|26.11.20/1130||13.1/79.0||55-65 gusting to 75||Deep Depression|
|27.11.20/2330||13.8/78.5||35-45 gusting to 55||Depression|
Dr. Mohapatra pointed out that fairly widespread to widespread rainfall/thunderstorm activity is very likely over coastal and north interior Tamilnadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema during 25th and 26th November and southeast Telangana during 26th November, 2020. He drew attention that isolated extremely heavy rainfall activity is also very likely over coastal & north interior Tamilnadu & Puducherry (Thanjavur, Tiruvarur, Nagapattinam, Cuddalore, Chennai, Kanchipuram, Chengalpattu, Myladuthirai, Ariyalur, Perambalur, Kallakurchi, Villupuram, Tiruvannamalai, Puducherry and Karaikal districts) during 25th; over Nellore and Chittoor districts of Andhra Pradesh on 25th and over Ranipet, Tiruvannamalai, Tirupattur, Vellore districts of Tamilnadu; Chittoor, Kurnool, Prakasam and Cuddappa districts of Andhra Pradesh and adjoining southeast Telangana on 26th November, 2020.
|Sub-Divisions||25 Nov 2020*||26 Nov 2020*||27 Nov 2020*|
|South Coastal Andhra Pradesh||Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy and extremely heavy falls||Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy and extremely heavy falls||Rainfall at many places|
|Coastal & North Interior Tamilnadu, Puducherry & Karaikal||Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and extremely heavy falls at isolated places||Rainfall at many places with heavy rainfall at isolated places||Rainfall at many places|
|South Interior Karnataka||Rainfall at many places with heavy rainfall at isolated places||Rainfall at many places with heavy rainfall at isolated places||Rainfall at many places|
|Rayalaseema||Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall with extremely heavy falls at isolated places||Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and extremely heavy falls at isolated places||Rainfall at many places|
|Telangana||Rainfall at a few places||Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall and extremely heavy falls at isolated places over southeast Telangana||Rainfall at many places|
(ii) Wind warning
- Gale wind speed reaching 110-120 kmph gusting to 135 kmph is prevailing over Southwest Bay of Bengal. Dr. Mohapatra said, it would further increase becoming 120-130 kmph gusting to 145 kmph during afternoon of 25th to early hours of 26th November.
- Squally wind speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph is prevailing along & off Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and adjoining South Andhra Pradesh coast and over Gulf of Mannar. It will gradually increase and become gale wind speed reaching 120-130 kmph gusting to 145 kmph along & off coastal districts of north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry (Nagapattinam, Karaikal, Myladuthurai, Cuddalore, Puducherry, Villupuram & Chengalpattu) and 80-90 gusting to 100 kmph very likely over Tiruvarur, Kanchipuram, Chennai, Tiruvallur districts during afternoon of 25th to early hrs of 26th November, 2020.
- Gale wind speed reaching 65-75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph very likely over adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal and along & off South Andhra Pradesh (Nellore & Chittoor districts), Gulf of Mannar and along and off south coastal districts of Tamil Nadu during afternoon of 25th to early hrs of 26th November, 2020.
(iii) Sea condition
The IMD Director General said that Sea condition is very high over Southwest Bay of Bengal and very rough to high along & off Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, south Andhra Pradesh coasts and over Gulf of Mannar. It would gradually become phenomenal over Southwest Bay of Bengal and along & off north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry coasts during afternoon of 25th to early hrs of 26th November, 2020, he added.
(iv) Strom Surge Warning
Dr. Mohapatra cautioned that Tidal wave of about 1-1.5m height above the astronomical tide is very likely to inundate the low lying areas of north coastal districts of Tamilnadu & Puducherry near the place of landfall.
(v) (a) Damage expected over Nagapattinam, Myladuthurai, Cuddalore, , Villupuram & Chengalpattu districts of Tamilnadu and Karaikal & Puducherry:
Speaking about expected damage, Dr. Mohapatra said that total destruction of thatched houses/ extensive damage to kutcha houses, some damage to old pucca houses, and potential threat from flying objects, may take place in the wake of the Cyclone Nivar. He outlined other damges that may occur as following:
- Bending/ uprooting of power and communication poles.
- Major damage to Kutcha and and Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes. Disruption of railways, overhead powerlines and signalling systems.
- Widespread damage to standing crops, plantations, orchards, falling of green coconuts and tearing of palm fronds. Blowing down of bushy trees like mango.
- Small boats, country crafts may get detached from moorings.
- Visibility severely affected.
(b) Damage expected over Tiruvarur, Kanchipuram, Chennai, Tiruvallaur districts of Tamilnadu and adjoining Andhra Pradesh:
- Damage to thatched houses/ huts with possibility of roof tops being blown off and unattached metal sheets may fly.
- Damage to power and communication lines.
- Damage to Kutcha and some damage to Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes.
- Breaking of tree branches, uprooting of trees. Severe damage to banana and papaya trees, horticulture and crops & orchards. Large dead limbs blown from trees.
- Major damage to coastal crops. Damage to embankments/ salt pans.
(vi) Fishermen Warning & Action Suggested:
The IMD DG advised total suspension of fishing operations, mobilising evacuation from coastal areas and coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places. He said:
- People in affected areas to remain in safe places and indoors.
- Judicious regulation of rail, road and air traffic.
- Movement in motor boats and small ships unsafe.
(vii) POST LANDFALLOUTLOOK FOR INTERIOR DISTRICTS (RANIPET, TIRUVANNAMALAI, TIRUPATTUR, VELLORE AND CHITTOOR)
Dr. Mohapatra pointed out that even after landfall, the system is likely to maintain its cyclone intensity for about 6 hours and weaken gradually. He said, under its influence rainfall at most/many places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places with isolated extremely heavy falls likely to occur over Ranipet, Tiruvannamalai, Tirupattur, Vellore districts of Tamilnadu and Chittoor, Kurnool, Prakasam; Cuddappa districts of Andhra Pradesh and adjoining southeast Telangana on 26.th Nov. Heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated paces likely over remaining districts of north interior Tamilnadu, south Andhra Pradesh and southeast Telangana.
- Gale wind speed reaching 65-75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph very likely to prevail over interior districts (Ranipet, Tiruvannamalai, Tirupattur, Vellore) of Tamilnadu and Chittoor district of Andhra Pradesh during 26th Nov early morning to forenoon.
- Damage expected over Ranipet, Tiruvannamalai, Tirupattur, Vellore districts of Tamilnadu and Chittoor, Kurnool, Prakasam and Cuddappa districts of Andhra Pradesh:
- Partial damage to thatched houses/ huts with possibility of roof tops being blown off and unattached metal sheets may fly.
- Partial damage to power and communication lines.
- Damage to Kutcha and some damage to Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes.
- Breaking of tree branches, uprooting of small trees. Damage to banana and papaya trees, horticulture and crops & orchards.
- People are advised to remain indoors/in safe places and cooperate with state government officials and disaster management agencies.
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