New Delhi, May 1: West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is facing a significant challenge from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in her 15 years of continuous governance. According to the average of nine major exit polls, the 2026 West Bengal Assembly elections depict a highly competitive and personal contest between the BJP and the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC).
With 294 seats in the Assembly, a simple majority requires 148 seats. Most of the exit polls are centered around this threshold, indicating a possibility of a decisive victory for the BJP, even if the contest remains close.
The competition appears to be primarily focused in the southern regions of the state, where the ruling party had previously won 142 seats across seven districts during the second phase of voting. In the northern part, the BJP has maintained its lead in parliamentary and assembly elections, especially following its unprecedented success in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, where it won 16 out of 42 seats in West Bengal, adding to its previous two seats.
Historically, areas like Darjeeling and the industrial regions around Asansol have shown considerable support for the BJP. The party has also successfully garnered support from a section of the Matua community, a socio-religious group rooted in the 19th-century Namashudra movement led by Harichand Thakur. The Matua community has become a significant voice for marginalized Hindus, particularly those who migrated from what was then East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) during the partition.
In West Bengal, they are concentrated in districts like North 24 Parganas and Nadia, where their numbers make them a decisive electoral force. Meanwhile, the BJP has also performed well in tribal areas, particularly in the western part of the state, waving the saffron flag in regions rich in forest land, bordering Bihar, Jharkhand, and Odisha.
This advantage continued in the 2021 assembly elections, where the BJP emerged as the principal opposition party, winning 77 seats. Former ruling parties like the Congress and the Left Front have weakened during this period, ultimately losing all their seats in the Assembly.
Many had dismissed Mamata Banerjee, including several election analysts who predicted a BJP chief minister for the first time in the state. However, she secured victory and strengthened her party’s position in the Assembly. Nevertheless, the BJP’s seat count in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections dropped to 12, providing significant relief to the TMC.
The final results, to be announced on May 4, are expected to have a crucial impact on the region once again. Mamata Banerjee achieved a remarkable victory in 2011 by riding the emotional wave of land acquisition for industrialization in a leftist stronghold. Between 2006 and 2011, the TMC added over 150 seats to its tally, pushing the communists to the margins. This time, the party leader has aggressively tackled the Election Commission’s Special Intensive Revision (SIR) and promoted Bengali pride.
Still, the BJP may rely on two aspects. First, in a state known for political commitment and instability, a large number of voters have refrained from expressing their opinions. This silence could be interpreted as fear of retribution. Second, many migrants from various parts of the country have returned to exercise their voting rights this time, a trend largely defined by political trust.
It is believed that following the intense political struggle over SIR, some individuals feared their names would be removed from the voter list, while others felt it was their duty to stand with either the incumbent government or the challenger in this year’s elections.
My name is Kuldeep Singh Chundawat. I am an experienced content writer with several years of expertise in the field. Currently, I contribute to Daily Kiran, creating engaging and informative content across a variety of categories including technology, health, travel, education, and automobiles. My goal is to deliver accurate, insightful, and captivating information through my words to help readers stay informed and empowered.
