Lucknow, May 24 — With the southwest monsoon arriving in Kerala eight days ahead of schedule, forecasts now indicate that Uttar Pradesh may also receive monsoon rains two to three days earlier than the usual June 20 timeline. According to Atul Kumar Singh, meteorologist at Banaras Hindu University (BHU), early indicators suggest timely and fairly strong rainfall across the state this year.
Widespread Rain Alerts Amid Rising Heat
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a rain and lightning alert for 65 districts in Uttar Pradesh on Saturday. Winds reaching speeds of 40 to 60 km/h are also expected to accompany these storms. In the past 24 hours, seven districts have already recorded rainfall, with Maharajganj receiving the highest at 10.3 mm.
In Varanasi, strong winds clocking 50 km/h swept through the city on Friday. Unfortunately, a youth lost his life due to a lightning strike. The weather activity has already cooled the state slightly, with average daytime temperatures dropping by 2–3°C.
Nautapa Begins, Mercury May Hit 47°C
Nautapa, the traditional nine-day heatwave period, begins May 25 and runs through June 2. This astronomical phase is known for intense heat, as the Sun comes closest to the Earth, resulting in direct and scorching solar radiation.
While this period often witnesses extreme heat, that’s not guaranteed every year. In 2024, a severe heatwave during Nautapa led to over 320 deaths in just four days. Conversely, 2023 saw milder temperatures due to widespread rainfall across north India, including Uttar Pradesh. Meteorologists believe Nautapa may have a subdued impact again this year, much like 2023.
Monsoon in UP Likely by June 17–18
With Kerala recording monsoon onset on May 25, all eyes are on the monsoon’s northward progression. According to Atul Kumar Singh, the actual arrival in UP will be clearer once the system reaches the northeastern states.
Still, current models indicate the monsoon could arrive in UP by June 17 or 18. While in past years early Kerala monsoons did not always translate to early UP arrival, this year conditions appear more favorable.
Historical data shows significant variation. In 2021, Kerala saw the monsoon on June 3, but UP received rains only 15 days later. In 2024, Kerala’s monsoon arrived on May 30, but it took 28 days to reach UP. On average, monsoon takes 15–30 days to travel from Kerala to UP.
15–20% More Rain Expected This Season
Encouraging news for farmers and water resource managers: the Ministry of Earth Sciences projects above-normal rainfall this year. BHU meteorologist Manoj Srivastava estimates that UP could see 15–20% more rainfall compared to last season.
The state typically receives an average of 947 mm rainfall during the monsoon, and any deviation can significantly impact agriculture, especially in rain-fed regions. Rainfall between 96% to 104% of the average is considered normal, while over 110% is classified as excess.
What Lies Ahead
As Nautapa intensifies, temperatures are expected to soar to 47°C, particularly in Bundelkhand and western UP. Jhansi was already the hottest city on Friday at 40.6°C. Cities like Banda, Chitrakoot, Prayagraj, and Fatehpur are also on heatwave alert. However, incoming rainfall and early monsoon onset may offer much-needed relief in the coming weeks.
Bhupendra Singh Chundawat is a seasoned technology journalist with over 22 years of experience in the media industry. He specializes in covering the global technology landscape, with a deep focus on manufacturing trends and the geopolitical impact on tech companies. Currently serving as the Editor at Udaipur Kiran, his insights are shaped by decades of hands-on reporting and editorial leadership in the fast-evolving world of technology.
