New Delhi, May 28: In a major relief for the agricultural sector and water management authorities, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has revised its monsoon forecast, now predicting above-normal rainfall across India during the June to September season. The new projection raises the expected rainfall to 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a variability margin of ±4%. This marks a slight but significant increase from the previous estimate of 105%.
Strong Start to June Monsoon Likely
According to IMD, June is expected to begin with a robust monsoon surge, bringing over 108% rainfall compared to the monthly average. This early and intensified rainfall could prove beneficial for Kharif crop sowing and improving reservoir levels across the country, enhancing irrigation and drinking water supply.
Most regions in India are forecast to receive either normal or above-normal rainfall in June, which meteorologists consider a promising sign for the overall monsoon performance. The IMD attributed this positive outlook to favorable sea surface temperatures and the weakening El Niño phenomenon—both of which typically influence Indian rainfall patterns.
Regional Impact and Temperature Trends
Despite the overall cooling effect of the monsoon, northwestern and northeastern regions—including Delhi—may continue to experience above-normal maximum temperatures during the early part of the season. However, most parts of India will witness a drop in temperatures due to cooler monsoon winds.
Northwest India, including Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan, is expected to receive rainfall ranging between 92% and 100% of the LPA—placing it within the ‘normal’ range. Meanwhile, the rest of the country may receive rainfall above the normal threshold.
Record Early Monsoon Arrival in Mumbai
Mumbai has witnessed its earliest monsoon arrival in over 75 years, with the southwest monsoon reaching the city 16 days ahead of schedule. Typically, the monsoon arrives in Mumbai by June 11, but this year it made landfall on May 25. According to IMD’s Mumbai office, this is the earliest onset since 1950.
The financial capital recorded 106 mm of rainfall in just 24 hours, with Nariman Point alone receiving 252 mm. This also made May 2025 the wettest May since records began in 1901, surpassing even the 2008 record of 165 mm with a new high of 186.4 mm. Despite the deluge, public transport services like suburban trains and buses continued to operate, albeit with minor delays.
Delhi Sees Record May Rainfall, More Showers Expected
Delhi is also on track for its rainiest May in recorded history, with 186.4 mm of rainfall already logged—breaking the previous 2008 record. IMD forecasts continued thunderstorms, rain, and strong winds (up to 60 km/h) in the national capital through the final week of May. Minimum temperatures are expected to hover between 25–27°C, while maximums may reach 33–37°C.
Early Monsoon Does Not Guarantee Faster Progress Nationwide
While the early arrival in Kerala and Mumbai is historic, IMD cautions that it does not imply a similar early onset for the rest of the country. Monsoon progression depends on a complex interplay of global, regional, and local climatic factors. Historically, the monsoon takes until July 8 to cover the entire country and retreats by mid-October.
IMD has reiterated that this year’s monsoon—boosted by improved oceanic conditions and the absence of El Niño—is likely to be favorable for agriculture, water reservoirs, and hydroelectric power generation.
Bhupendra Singh Chundawat is a seasoned technology journalist with over 22 years of experience in the media industry. He specializes in covering the global technology landscape, with a deep focus on manufacturing trends and the geopolitical impact on tech companies. Currently serving as the Editor at Udaipur Kiran, his insights are shaped by decades of hands-on reporting and editorial leadership in the fast-evolving world of technology.
