New Delhi, May 10 – The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that the southwest monsoon is expected to hit Kerala on May 27, four days ahead of its usual schedule of June 1. This will be the earliest monsoon onset in 16 years, with the last such early entry occurring in 2009 (May 23).
The early arrival signals a positive outlook for rainfall across India, especially crucial for the country’s agriculture-dependent economy.
Above-Normal Rainfall Expected for June–September Period
According to Ministry of Earth Sciences Secretary M. Ravichandran, the June to September period could bring 105% of average rainfall, classifying it as “above normal”. On average, India receives 87 cm of rainfall during this four-month monsoon season.
Rainfall classifications by IMD:
Below 90%: Deficient
90–95%: Below Normal
96–104%: Normal
104–110%: Above Normal
Above 110%: Excess
The absence of El Niño conditions this year boosts confidence in the abundant rainfall forecast, as La Niña or neutral patterns favor strong monsoons. In contrast, 2023 saw a 6% rainfall deficit due to El Niño.
Timeline and Impact of Monsoon on Indian Economy
The monsoon usually starts retreating by September 17 via Rajasthan and completes withdrawal by October 15. Once it hits Kerala, it typically covers the rest of India by July 8.
The monsoon’s performance holds critical significance for:
42.3% of India’s population involved in agriculture
18.2% contribution of agriculture to India’s GDP
70–80% of farmers who rely on monsoon rains for irrigation
70% of India’s annual rainfall, which occurs during this season
Good rainfall boosts rural income, especially before the festive season, encouraging higher consumer spending and stimulating overall economic growth.
Long-Term Monsoon Trends and Early Arrivals
IMD data shows considerable variation in monsoon arrival:
Earliest ever: May 11, 1918
Latest ever: June 18, 1972
In the last five years, IMD and private forecaster Skymet have accurately predicted monsoon trends. In 2024, India received 108% rainfall, closely matching IMD’s prediction of 106%.
Monsoon’s Early Signs and Regional Effects
IMD also stated that the monsoon is expected to enter Andaman-Nicobar Islands by May 13, progressing into the Bay of Bengal. However, official monsoon onset is declared only upon its arrival in Kerala.
On Saturday, Delhi and parts of 20 Indian states reported thunderstorms and rain, a precursor to the advancing monsoon.
Bhupendra Singh Chundawat is a seasoned technology journalist with over 22 years of experience in the media industry. He specializes in covering the global technology landscape, with a deep focus on manufacturing trends and the geopolitical impact on tech companies. Currently serving as the Editor at Udaipur Kiran, his insights are shaped by decades of hands-on reporting and editorial leadership in the fast-evolving world of technology.
