Will Gold Prices Reach ₹1.50 Lakh by December 2026?
New Delhi, November 12: Gold prices have been under continuous pressure in recent trading sessions, primarily due to the stringent stance of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the strength of the dollar. Currently, gold is trading at around ₹1,38,500 per 10 grams on the MCX. Amid this decline, investors are left wondering if gold prices could reach ₹1.50 lakh per 10 grams by the end of December 2026. While some experts foresee a recovery in gold, others predict further declines. Here’s what experts have to say about the future of gold prices.
What is Pressuring Gold Prices?
The primary reason for the decline in gold prices is the strict policy regarding interest rates from the U.S. Federal Reserve. According to Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered research analyst, there is an expectation of a 50 basis point (0.50%) increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. If interest rates rise, options like bonds and bank deposits may become more attractive to investors, potentially impacting the demand for gold, which does not yield regular interest. Additionally, the strength of the U.S. dollar is also hindering any upward movement in gold prices.
No Benefit from Falling Crude Oil Prices
Crude oil prices have dropped from around $118 to $92 per barrel due to progress in talks between the U.S. and Iran. Typically, a decrease in crude prices raises hopes for lower inflation, which could benefit gold. However, this time, the Federal Reserve’s strict stance and higher-than-expected inflation figures are weighing heavily on gold. According to Kainat Chainwala, AVP of commodity research at Kotak Neo, the future movement of gold will depend on U.S. interest rates, inflation, and the status of the dollar.
Could Gold Reach ₹1.50 Lakh by December 2026?
The most significant news for investors is that gold prices could touch ₹1.50 lakh per 10 grams on the MCX by December 2026. Kainat Chainwala suggests that gold would need to show an increase of about 8% from current levels to reach this target. For this to happen, a moderation in U.S. inflation, reduced expectations of interest rate hikes, and a weakening dollar are essential. A strong hold above ₹1.46 lakh on the MCX could signal a bullish trend for gold. Moreover, if the international market breaks out above $4,220 per ounce, gold on the MCX could rise to between ₹1.49 lakh and ₹1.52 lakh.
Possibility of Further Declines in Gold Prices
However, Anuj Gupta remains cautious. He indicates that if the U.S. Federal Reserve increases interest rates by 50 basis points, selling pressure on gold and silver could increase. The critical support level for gold in the international market is $3,800 per ounce; if it falls below this, prices could slide to $3,400. Additionally, Kaveri More, a commodity technical analyst at Choice Broking, notes that gold must surpass the ₹1,42,800 to ₹1,46,100 range on the MCX for a bullish trend. On the downside, ₹1,37,300 and ₹1,24,900 are significant support levels.