Saturday , September 18 2021

IMD launches new ensemble prediction systems to improve weather forecast

These new systems, according to IMD, shall improve upon deterministic forecasts that are prone to high margins of error. The EPS involves generation of multiple forecasts using slightly varying initial conditions.

The 450-crore acquisition of eight petaflops high-power computing systems will help in generating newer forecasts which have a higher resolution of 12km instead of the 23km resolution that has been in use. The forecast related to the intensity of the weather will also be more accurate and colour coded.

The Met Department has a new model of weather forecasting. It is considered the best available model after the one used in Europe. Accurate forecasts will help farmers prevent damage to crops and aid administration in taking preventive measures before the onset of harsh weather patterns. Ministry of Earth Sciences has adopted the ensemble forecasting system, which provides not one but a collection of weather patterns for specific locations. 

Ensemble forecasting provides localised predictions of a 12 km resolution compared to 23 kilometers in the earlier system. The new model has been developed jointly by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and National Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting.

With this new model, India joins the US with a model that predicts with a 12 km resolution. Only the ‘European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast’ has a, better, nine-kilometer resolution. Better forecasts lead to better management agriculture and water resources. It also helps promote tourism, solar and wind energy.

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